A security expert told Fox News Digital the first 48 hours are critical in the search for an American Christian missionary kidnapped in the West African nation of Niger, who may have already been moved between Islamic State-controlled areas where an ISIS offshoot operates.
Bryan Stern, founder of the crisis response group Grey Bull Rescue, said in an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital that in most organized kidnappings, those who seize a hostage are rarely the same people who hold them.
"What happens in most of these cases is whoever took the hostage isn't who's holding on to the hostage," Stern said. "The people who hold hostages generally are a lot smarter, a lot more capable, less disposable… so getting to them as soon as possible does matter in a very demonstrable way."
Stern said every passing hour reduces the chance of recovery. In many cases, hostages are quickly traded or sold between groups with differing motives — from ransom to propaganda — making it difficult to know what the captors want.
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"It's easy to understand who took somebody, but once people start getting traded around like cards and stuff, it's hard to then understand what the current holding party wants," he said.
The groups often operate with their own chain of command and pecking order, each with different goals and levels of influence.
"All those different things play into how you’re gonna get somebody back, and the most dangerous thing to do is send ninjas in and shoot everybody," Stern said. "That’s the most highest-risk thing that we do because there’s no margin for error."
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U.S. officials confirmed they are aware of the kidnapping, which took place in Niamey, about 100 yards from Niger’s presidential palace. The missionary, a pilot for the evangelical group Serving in Mission, was reportedly taken north toward an area controlled by an ISIS offshoot.
A State Department spokesperson said embassy officials are working closely with local authorities and that the Trump administration views the safe return of the U.S. citizen as a top priority. The U.S. Embassy has also restricted staff movements to armored vehicles and prohibited visits to restaurants and open-air markets.
Stern described the region as "31 flavors," meaning there is everything from Russian proxies to criminal gangs and Islamic fundamentalists running around.
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While it’s easy to assume Islamist militants were behind the abduction, Stern cautioned, "until you know…it becomes speculation."
"At some point, somebody will ask for something, you hope," he said. "It’s very scary when they don’t ask for anything… the worst case scenario is a hostage taken by someone who doesn’t want anything. Then there’s no play to be made other than find them and kill them, and hopefully you survive that process."
For now, the focus is on finding proof of life and establishing communication.
U.S. special operations units are likely monitoring surveillance and communications from the region, but Stern cautioned that a rescue attempt would be "the most dangerous thing special operations does."
Officials have not said whether any group has claimed responsibility or issued any demands.
Fox News Digital’s Michael Dorgan and Paul Tilsley contributed to this report.
