President Donald Trump’s administration formally launched the second phase of its plan to end the war between Israel and Hamas this week, shifting from a ceasefire framework toward a post-ceasefire political and security phase for Gaza. The announcement immediately raised a central question that now dominates expert analysis: who will actually disarm Hamas.

U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff announced Wednesday that phase two is underway, describing it as a transition "from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance and reconstruction." He warned that Hamas must fully comply with its obligations under the deal, including the immediate return of the final deceased Israeli hostage.

"The U.S. expects Hamas to comply fully with its obligations, including the immediate return of the final deceased hostage," Witkoff wrote on X. "Failure to do so will bring serious consequences."

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President Donald Trump reinforced the administration’s announcement on Thursday, writing on Truth Social that the United States had "OFFICIALLY entered the next phase of Gaza’s 20-Point Peace Plan," following Witkoff’s remarks. Trump said that since the ceasefire, his team had helped deliver "RECORD LEVELS of Humanitarian Aid to Gaza, reaching Civilians at HISTORIC speed and scale," adding that "even the United Nations has acknowledged this achievement as UNPRECEDENTED." 

Trump wrote that these developments had "set the stage for this next phase," which he said would include backing a newly appointed Palestinian technocratic government, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, to govern the territory during a transitional period. Trump described himself as chairman of the Board of Peace and said the committee would be supported by the board’s high representative. 

Trump again warned that Hamas must "IMMEDIATELY honor its commitments, including the return of the final body to Israel, and proceed without delay to full Demilitarization," adding, "They can do this the easy way, or the hard way." Trump concluded the post by saying, "The people of Gaza have suffered long enough. The time is NOW. PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH."

The new phase envisions the establishment of a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza, while the United States works with Egypt and other regional partners to ensure compliance and stability. Yet the announcement offered few operational details, particularly regarding how Hamas would be disarmed after more than two decades of military control in the enclave.

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In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital, Jérôme Bonnafont, France’s ambassador to the United Nations, called the ceasefire an "incredible achievement" and said phase two could help lay the groundwork for peace without Hamas.

"The Trump plan is establishing a ceasefire, which is an incredible achievement," Bonnafont said. "It has to go to a massive reopening of humanitarian aid, and it is going to be announced within a couple of days."

He said the next stage includes an international stabilization force that would support reconstruction and contribute to Hamas’s disarmament.

"That would help disarm Hamas, and that will help the Palestinian Authority return and democratically restart the management of Gaza as part of the Palestinian territory," he said.

Bonnafont emphasized that France views Israel’s security as a priority, particularly in the face of regional threats. "We have always been on the side of Israel when it comes, for example, to the threats by Iran to the existence of Israel," he said.

At the same time, he said France believes long-term security depends on the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state living in peace with Israel. "We believe that security for Israel in the long term comes with the creation of Palestine," Bonnafont said. "A Palestine that has to be independent but demilitarized and in peace with Israel."

The United Nations also welcomed the announcement of phase two, calling it "an important step" while emphasizing adherence to international law and existing U.N. resolutions.

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Israeli and U.S. security analysts broadly agree that phase two cannot succeed without addressing Hamas’s weapons and coercive power.

Dr. Avner Golov, vice president of the Israeli policy institute Mind Israel, told Fox News Digital that, "The central challenge is Hamas’s demilitarization," Golov said. "The only actors truly willing to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities are the Israelis, and as long as Hamas remains armed, there should be no rebuilding and no IDF withdrawal from the current defensive line."

"In the end, there must be a credible military threat from the IDF against Hamas," he said. "Without such a threat, I see no chance that Hamas will voluntarily disarm."

Golov also pointed to what he described as a gap between diplomatic commitments and action by regional actors. "The key test is Turkey and Qatar," he said. "They signed a document committing to Hamas’s disarmament, but since then they have not demonstrated real commitment to implementing it."

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Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow for American Strategy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), argued that phase two presents a detailed reconstruction framework but avoids the most politically difficult decision.

"The peace plan offers a detailed framework for rebuilding Gaza and promoting better governance," Ruhe said. "But it’s silent on the ‘who’ and ‘how’ of disarming Hamas."

"As long as Hamas can interrupt aid distribution, intimidate and kill Gazans who want a better future, and threaten renewed war with Israel, international investment in reconstruction and reform will be near zero," he said.

While Trump’s plan calls for Hamas to disarm voluntarily, Ruhe also said Hamas has little reason to do so. "Hamas refuses because it thinks it won the war," he said. "Now there is an urgent need to decide who will disarm Hamas forcefully."

Ruhe noted that a U.N. Security Council resolution authorizes an International Stabilization Force to disarm Hamas, but he said no country has been willing to put troops in that role. Instead, he said the Trump plan outlines a more limited mission for international forces, focused on guarding aid sites and preventing Hamas resupply.

"Trump and Netanyahu both said Israel might have to disarm Hamas," Ruhe said. "But the IDF ground forces need to rest and refit after two years of grueling combat, and a major offensive risks blowing up the international coalition needed for phase two."

He suggested that well-vetted private military contractors, overseen by U.S. security officials rather than U.S. Central Command, could play a role, though he acknowledged such a move would involve "hard fighting."

Despite diplomatic momentum, analysts interviewed by Fox News Digital cautioned that time may be working against the plan. "The status quo favors Hamas as it continues tightening its grip over its half of Gaza," Ruhe said. "Announcing the Board of Peace serves important diplomatic purposes, but it won’t mean much on the ground unless and until Hamas is disarmed."

Golov echoed that assessment. "As long as Hamas remains armed, there should be no rebuilding and no IDF withdrawal from the current defensive line," he said.