Polling ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election projects that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party will win between seven and ten seats in the 120-member Knesset, potentially making any future government led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party contingent on his support and positioning him to secure senior ministerial portfolios.
His political rise mirrors a broader trend across Europe and the West, where parties such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's National Rally in France, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, Australia's One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Germany's Alice Weidel of the AfD have all gained ground on traditional conservative political parties.
The highly controversial Ben-Gvir, as national security minister, oversees the ministry responsible for internal security, including the Israel Police, Israel Prison Service and civilian firearms licensing.
"I always say that Minister Ben-Gvir, if he were in America, he would just be called a Texan," Yishai Fleisher, international spokesman for the Jewish community of Hebron and a candidate ranked No. 12 on the Otzma Yehudit list, told Fox News Digital.
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In a video interview with Fox News Digital, Fleisher continued, "Meaning law and order, the death penalty for murderers, tough conditions for jihadists in our prisons and gun rights for the average Jewish person to be able to defend themselves in our national state. That’s what Itamar Ben-Gvir stands for," he added.
Fleisher said that mass immigration had fueled Islamist extremism and unrest in parts of Europe, saying Israelis want to avoid similar developments.
"There is a jihadist takeover that has come in through immigration, and now the streets of Paris are burning, and the people of Belgium and the U.K. want their countries back," Fleisher said. "In Israel, we don’t want to see Tel Aviv burning," prompting politicians to embrace what are known in the United States as "law-and-order" and "tough-on-crime" candidates.
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Former Israeli Ambassador to Washington Danny Ayalon said that Ben-Gvir had missed an opportunity to change course despite his lack of military service and past conviction, arguing that his tenure had instead had a damaging impact, including on Israel’s diplomatic standing.
"Ben-Gvir spoke in a way that turned the entire world against Israel, portraying it as a racist country by making statements that made Israel a pariah state," Ayalon said.
Fleisher praised Ben-Gvir, who he said has cracked down on protection rackets in southern Israel and made significant progress toward what he described as greater equality for Jews on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, Judaism’s holiest site.
"Minister Ben-Gvir was an activist from a very young age. He saw the dangers and evils of the Oslo process with the Palestinians and tried to stop it. He was arrested and stopped many times because of that, and he faced the court many times. It was then-Chief Justice Aharon Barak who once told him, ‘Why don’t you go study to be a lawyer?’" Fleisher sai
Ben-Gvir, who studied law, became active in public and political affairs and was first elected to the Knesset in 2021. Following the 2022 elections, he was appointed minister of national security by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
His many critics have taken issue with his firebrand style and what many view as a lack of political correctness. Ambassador Ayalon, a former deputy defense minister, told Fox News Digital that he also viewed Ben-Gvir’s performance as national security minister negatively.
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"During his tenure, Israel has become less secure internally because crime is rising. Many young people believed in the last election that he would bring governability and authority to areas such as the Negev and the Galilee, on the outskirts of the country, where there is almost no law," Ayalon said.
In 2007, Ben-Gvir was convicted of supporting a terrorist organization and inciting racism.
His campaign told Fox News Digital that the conviction stemmed from displaying a sticker of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was outlawed in 1994, and reflected his support for a Jewish nationalist movement.
"As a young man, Minister Ben-Gvir was an intense Jewish nationalist. He has said many times, publicly, that he has matured since then and moved on from those positions."
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Recent posts on Ben-Gvir’s social media accounts, along with statements issued through Netanyahu’s and Likud’s official channels, have raised questions about whether the two remain fully aligned.
On Oct. 15, Ben-Gvir shared a Hebrew-language media report quoting Netanyahu as saying that he would not serve again as national security minister. In response, Ben-Gvir wrote: "Dear Prime Minister, only the people will decide. Ben Gvir is strong, Israel is strong!"
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Last Wednesday, Netanyahu's Likud party appeared to reverse course, posting a message on its official WhatsApp channel stating: "Ben-Gvir is a senior minister in our government, and he will remain so in the next government — provided that the bloc consisting of the Left and Arab parties does not win."
Despite the public statements, Ayalon said Netanyahu could opt not to include Ben-Gvir in the next government, even if it meant forming an alliance with opposition parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar.
"Netanyahu is brilliant. He kept Ben-Gvir because it suited him. If he could, he would get rid of him in a minute. Bibi is capable of changing his mind on a dime," Ayalon said.
Fleisher credited Ben-Gvir with tripling the number of personal firearms and firearms licenses issued to Israelis over four years, establishing 1,000 rapid-response teams, overhauling the prison system and demolishing 9,000 illegally built homes, particularly in the Negev.
In March, the Knesset approved a death-penalty law sponsored by Otzma Yehudit and other lawmakers, a measure Ben-Gvir has strongly championed.
"No more hotel-like conditions in our prisons. You’ll know you are being punished for your crime, and these simple policies ultimately deter jihadism," Fleisher told Fox News Digital.
"They understand that he represents a full-throated pushback against the jihadist takeover of our land. Ben-Gvir also represents a strong Jewish identity, strong policies and strong laws to ensure that we don’t lose control of our country," he said.
The latest polls show Netanyahu’s bloc slightly behind the opposition, led by Yashar party chief Gadi Eisenkot, but neither side has a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a governing majority.
