JOHANNESBURG – Key Republicans are already pressing the incoming Trump administration to kick South Africa out of lucrative trade arrangements, should the South African government not change its position on Russia, China, Iran and Israel.

Most at risk is South Africa’s duty-free exports to the U.S. of items such as cars and citrus fruit under AGOA – the African Growth and Opportunity Act, and with it the potential loss of tens of thousands of African jobs. South Africa is likely to be under intense scrutiny from the incoming administration. 

A publication from the Center for African Studies at Howard University, in 2023, warned that a country wanting AGOA’s preferential trade agreements "cannot act in a manner that undermines U.S. national security or foreign policy interests".

South Africa joins Russia’s military aircraft and naval vessels on exercises, allowing Pretoria’s naval bases to be used by the Kremlin and Russia’s sanctioned warships. Senior South African military officials have received training in Moscow. At the U.N., South Africa has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

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South Africa’s majority ANC party has met with terror group Hamas, and recently one branch of the ANC supported a local Muslim leader who reportedly shouted to a cheering crowd, "I am Hamas, Cape Town is Hamas, Viva Hamas!" The government also issued a statement condemning the killing this year of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The country’s foreign minister, Ronald Lamola, spoke out against the "assassination" of this designated terrorist leader, saying "such acts of extrajudicial killings violate international law."

South Africa has accused Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice.

South Africa’s biggest trading partner is China, with the two countries being founder members of the BRICS trade organization. South Africa has welcomed the inclusion now of Iran in BRICS. There have been accusations of deep links between Tehran and Pretoria.

"Given the South African positions on the Russia-Ukraine and Mideast conflicts, South Africa is leaning away from American positions in a number of ways, most especially in its vigorous pursuit of Israel and its leaders in the international courts," J. Brooks Spector told Fox News Digital. 

Spector, a former U.S. diplomat now based in Johannesburg, and deputy editor of the respected Daily Maverick, added that "continuing action and rhetoric by South Africa in its pursuit of Israel in international court efforts will, however, encourage Republicans in Congress (and probably in the administration as well) to strip South Africa of benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, assuming the act is renewed next year."

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"Such pursuits by the South African government may also lead to efforts to cut back on assistance to important efforts such as PEPFAR – the aid program that, together with the Global Fund and local organizations, has been crucial in the country’s successful efforts combatting HIV and AIDS."

One such leading Republican, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Fox News Digital, "I remain concerned about South Africa’s efforts to cozy up to Russia, China and Iran, including Iran’s terror proxies, and the impact this has on U.S. national security – a vital element in AGOA eligibility. The country’s foreign policy actions will remain a focus of my oversight efforts." 

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa and member of the Senate Finance Committee, slammed South Africa in 2023, "South Africa has harbored sanctioned Russian ships, expanded relations with Iran and issued statements against Israel’s right to defend itself following Hamas’ recent terror attacks" 

Both of these influential Republican leaders are expected to become more powerful when President-elect Trump takes office in January, with Scott’s office staff telling Fox News Digital, "Sen. Scott looks forward to working with the Trump administration to ensure that AGOA participants are not undermining our national security interests."

South Africa’s moves are very definitely in an extremely bright spotlight in Washington. From inside the beltway, Richard Goldberg told Fox News Digital he’s worried particularly over potential links between South Africa and Iran. Goldberg is a former member of the National Security Council, and a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He told Fox, "The first step is to build the case publicly, and give South Africa one last moment of choosing. We should declassify intelligence about South Africa’s deep relationship with Iran, and any other support or partnership with terrorist groups."

Goldberg continued, "And then we need to use our full diplomatic and economic weight to force Pretoria to choose between the United States and our terrorist adversaries. AGOA should be one of several items on the policy menu."

South Africa’s Department of International Relations didn’t respond to several requests for comment. But COSATU’s Parliamentary Co-ordinator, Matthew Parks did. COSATU is the Confederation of South African Trade Unions, historically aligned with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC party. Parks is highly respected for his meaningful and dignified pursuance of workers’ rights. His members have much to lose, including potentially their jobs, if South Africa is pushed out of AGOA. But he appeared to be cautiously optimistic when talking to Fox News Digital, "We are confident that our relations with the U.S. will continue to grow, including through AGOA, simply because it is to the benefit of both our peoples."

"We’ve been extensively involved in engagements between South Africa and the U.S., on how to deepen our relations and toward the renewal of AGOA," Parks continued.  "We’ve engaged extensively with our colleagues in the U.S. labor movement, business community, Congress (both Republicans and Democrats), the State Department, Department of Labor, NSC and the White House."

As Trump moves into the White House, nearby Ebrahim Rassool will be starting his second term as South African ambassador to the U.S. This month he talked to the Daily Maverick on South Africa’s challenges with the new administration, referring to South Africa’s attack on Israel at the ICJ. "We will stick by the case, but let us now trust our legal team," he said, "trust the evidence that we have placed in front of the judges of the ICJ, trust the judges of the ICJ to come to a sustainable, just solution – but that we need to put away the megaphone now." 

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Rassool pointed out that the South African oranges exported to the U.S. under AGOA enabled Americans to drink orange juice all year round, when Florida and California oranges were out of season. 

And Rassool added, "Why would you want to punish America with expensive cars when the BMWs coming from South Africa are going to be much cheaper than getting them from Germany or manufacturing your own?

"Likewise, to point out that American cancer patients are receiving medical nuclear isotopes that come from South Africa."

The expulsion of South Africa from AGOA would be "disastrous," Renai Moothilal wrote in the Business Day newspaper last year. Moothilal is CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component & Allied Manufacturers, and wrote, "It will be no surprise if some component manufacturers close their doors. U.S.-headquartered multinational manufacturers with plants here may exit the South African country if there are volume losses linked to our exclusion from AGOA, or other forms of political pressure are brought to bear."

Observers note there are loud threats coming from President-elect Trump himself, including a claim that he will slap a 100% import tariff on countries like South Africa if, as members of BRICS, they adopt a new currency to rival the dollar. In the other corner of the ring, South African politicians are taking a more placatory and reserved tone. The Democratic Alliance or DA is South Africa’s main opposition party. But since May, they have also been members of the government of national unity, working in a sometimes noisy coalition with President Ramaphosa’s ANC. 

Emma Powell, the DA’s national spokesperson for foreign affairs, told Fox News Digital that it’s likely the relationship between Pretoria and Washington "will become increasingly transactional, with greater emphasis placed on equitable reciprocity. This would contrast the Biden administration’s approach to beneficiation-based investment and development. There is also likely to be less tolerance for any action on the part of the South African government that may be perceived as undermining the national security interests of the United States."

Powell added "the Trump administration is also likely to take a more cautious approach on AGOA eligibility."

J. Brooks Spector told Fox News Digital he could take home one strong positive: "The incoming U.S. president’s often-expressed support for transactional foreign economic policies may possibly be an incentive for Africa's nations – urged on by South Africa – to come together with initiatives offering trade and market concessions in Africa to America."